Sunday, October 17, 2021

BITCOIN MINERS BECOMING HODLERS

 





With extensive experience as an electrical/software/coding engineer along with having a diverse financial background, Thomas Wettermann’s areas of interests include Machine Learning (ML), artificial intelligence (AI), and Financial Technology (FinTech). For the past few years, Thomas Wettermann has focused on the underlying technologies that support and promote all phases of cryptocurrency ecosystems. 

Cryptocurrencies include Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Dogecoin (to name a few cryptocurrencies) and these currencies continue to dominate the headlines and financial markets. Bitcoin, as the original cryptocurrency, is the most popular. Bitcoin uses a process called mining to issue new coins and to reward “miners” that participate in the Bitcoin network. Mining involves a process wherein new bitcoins are entered into circulation. It is also an important component for the maintenance and development of the blockchain ledger. For example, miners help to verify and legitimize all Bitcoin transactions. This convention is meant to keep Bitcoin users honest. Verifying transactions, miners are helping to prevent the potential of the "double-spending” problem. Mining is performed using sophisticated GPU and ASIC based computers to solve extremely complex computational math problems. 

Bitcoin uses Proof-of-Work to establish a global competition among consensus bitcoin miners all across the world solving these complex computational math problems. For example, some of the largest bitcoin mining locations or “mining farms” are in China, Iceland, Russia, and the USA. However, with the most recent Chinese crypto crackdown, these dynamics have changed. For example, just recently in September 24th, China's most powerful regulators initiated yet another crackdown on cryptocurrencies. Basically, these regulators have now issued a blanket ban on all crypto transactions and mining. 

What is at stake for these competing miners? Well, the winning miner receives the right to append their block to the public ledger. To compensate miners for the costs incurred for the processing hardware, the enormous power requirements, and the supporting logistics and infrastructure, the Bitcoin network offers a financial reward. Specifically, this financial reward is paid out in the form of newly minted bitcoin tokens in addition to transaction fees. For example, during Bitcoin’s recent bull run and as more users are rushing to use the digital currency, Bitcoin transaction fees are starting to increase. Lately, the average bitcoin transaction fee is about $3.33, according to data provider Bitinfocharts. Bitcoin mining is highly competitive where such rewards are given to the miner who finds a solution first, every ten minutes. 

Because the blockchain is a public ledger, all Bitcoin transactions are publicly visible. As such, anyone can track how Bitcoin miners utilize their earned bitcoins. That is, do successful miners sell these newly earned coins to fund their mining activities and other operating expenses. Or, do these miners hold or “hodle” their newly minted Bitcoin and use alternative funding to fund their mining activities.

Typically, Bitcoin miners would use their newly earned Bitcoin to pay for capital equipment and other costs of running mining rigs and mining farms. But this can change, especially where Bitcoin starts to make a bull run and the mining economics tend to favor alternative financing options. In that seems to be the case with the present Bitcoin environment. That is, as the price of Bitcoin is starting to show bullish moves, Bitcoin miners appear to be hodling or holding on to their Bitcoin. 

For example, recently Bitcoin is on a bit of a bullish run as it just recently surpassed $60,000. Similarly, Bitcoin's overall market capitalization has once again eclipsed $1.16 trillion. For example, at press time, Bitcoin was trading at $61,654 up 60% over the last year. 

In May and June of this year, China took increased regulatory sanctions towards its crypto industry, shutting down miners and causing an ASIC mining exodus. Many miners have since set up shops overseas, thereby altering the bitcoin mining landscape permanently. As a result, bitcoin miners in North America have emerged as big winners from the Chinese crackdowns. As mining farms shut down operations in the East, the global Bitcoin network hashrate dropped sharply. Consequently, Bitcoin's difficulty adjusted downwards, making it "easier" to mine blocks. Therefore, it was easier for miners to receive their miner rewards. So, those companies that maintained regular operations saw their daily Bitcoin mining rate increase substantially. 

Rather than spend their newly earned bitcoin, on-chain metrics can be used to monitor how these cryptocurrency miners are continuing to hoard their newly earned Bitcoin. Recently, from on-chain metrics, there appears to be a trend among some of the larger Bitcoin miners as to holding onto their newly minted currencies to bolster their balance sheets. Such a reading is consistent with statements provided by a number of the larger North American mining companies. 

Actions and statements by a few of the larger, US and Canadian based mining companies provide strong evidence of what these mining entities are doing with their newly earned Bitcoin. For example, recent monthly production updates from crypto miners such as Riot Blockchain and Marathon Digital Holdings show they have kept their mined bitcoins during September, when prices hovered around $40,000. 


In September 2021, Riot Blockchain, Inc. (NASDAQ: RIOT) based in Castle Rock, Colorado, confirmed that it has produced 406 Bitcoin from its own mining facilities. According to Riot, this was an increase of approximately 346% over its previous September 2020 production of only 91 Bitcoin. And with respect to year to date numbers through September 2021, Riot Blockchain represented that it had produced a total of 2,457 Bitcoin, an increase of approximately 236% over its BTC production during the same 2020 period of 731 BTC. As of September 30, 2021, Riot held approximately 3,534 BTC, all of which were produced by its self-mining operations. To achieve such drastic increases in BTC production, Riot has deployed a mining fleet of approximately 25,646 miners, with a hash rate capacity of 2.6 exahash per second (“EH/s”). At today’s Bitcoin price of $60,827, that would mean that Riot’s held Bitcoin would have a net worth of over $214M. 

Other larger mining companies have experienced similar Bitcoin mining success as well. And these other mining entities are also holding onto their newly mined Bitcoin. For example, Riot’s competitor, Marathon Digital Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:MARA), said that the company held 6,695 bitcoins in August. As of October 1, 2021, Marathon’s mining fleet has produced approximately 2,098 newly minted bitcoins during 2021. As a result, Marathon currently holds approximately 7,035 Bitcoin, including the 4,812.66 Bitcoin the Company purchased in January 2021 for an average price of $31,168 per Bitcoin. On October 1, 2021, the fair market value of one bitcoin was approximately $47,798, implying that the approximate fair market value of Marathon’s current bitcoin holdings is approximately $336.3 million. 

Canadian Hut 8 has experienced similar Bitcoin mining success. Hut 8 recently reported that on October 4 that 264 Bitcoin were mined, resulting in an average production rate of 9.11 Bitcoin/day. All of its Bitcoin earned were self-mined for the month were deposited into custody, which is consistent with Hut 8’2 Hodl strategy. Therefore, total Bitcoin balance held in reserve were 4,724 coins as of September 30, 2021. Canadian Hut 8 reported that all of its self-mined bitcoins were deposited into custody, which is consistent with the company’s strategy to “hodl” its mined digital currency. “We are thrilled with our current amount of Bitcoin held in reserve as well as being ahead of schedule on our commitment to the market to have over 5,000 self-mined bitcoin by end of Q4,” said Jaime Leverton, CEO of Hut 8, in a statement. 

As these examples illustrate, instead of selling unexpected BTC to increase profits, most miners have committed to a HODL mentality. As they could mine more Bitcoin than anticipated, North American miners have indulged in increasing their Bitcoin stack, which they plan on holding long-term – resorting to bitcoin-backed loans where necessary. 

The strategy of holding onto the digital currency is that in a bull run, doing so is likely to help miners’ balance sheets and bolster investors’ bullish sentiment on the overall sector. The miners are already enjoying continued profitability because the price of bitcoin has recovered from its recent decline and has now climbed about 88% this year. And investors of these mining entities are taking notice. For example, Riot’s share price has climbed about 57% this year, while those of Marathon jumped 254%, and Hut 8 risen 232%. 

And no doubt, this hodling trend is more than likely to continue. For example, the latest data compiled by the Cambridge Centre for Alternative Finance (CCAF) suggests that the U.S. has now replaced China as the country with the biggest market share of Bitcoin's hash rate. The latest data compiled by the CCAF suggests that the U.S. has replaced China as the country with the biggest market share of Bitcoin's hash rate. 

All the views expressed on this site are those of Thomas Wettermann and do not represent the opinions of any entity whatsoever with which Thomas Wettermann has been, is currently, or will be affiliated. 

Trading digital financial assets such as cryptocurrencies can carry a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Before deciding to invest, purchase, and/or trade cryptocurrency you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, adversity to risk and volatilities. The possibility exists that you may sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with cryptocurrency trading, and seek advice from a qualified and independent financial advisor. Thomas Wettermann is not an independent financial advisor. 

Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary of Thomas Wettermann, and does not constitute investment advice. Thomas Wettermann will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. All opinions expressed on this site are owned by Thomas Wettermann and should never be considered as advice in any form.

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